Pancreatitis-associated mortality in the united states: A population-based analysis of trends and disparities, 1999 to 2023

Abstract

Pancreatitis contributes substantially to gastrointestinal mortality, yet its population-level burden remains incompletely characterized. We conducted a retrospective, population-based study using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research Multiple Cause-of-Death database (1999-2023). Adults aged >= 45 years with pancreatitis (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision: K85.x, K86.0-K86.1) listed anywhere on the death certificate were included. Age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated using the 2000 US standard population. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent change (APC) and average APC. The age-adjusted mortality rate declined from 6.30 to 4.63 per 100,000, with an overall decrease (average APC: -1.18%). Mortality declined through 2018, increased during 2018 to 2021, and declined thereafter. Higher mortality was observed among males, older adults, Black and American Indian/Alaska Native populations, and in the Southern United States. Alcoholic pancreatitis mortality increased, while chronic pancreatitis mortality remained stable. Pancreatitis-associated mortality declined over 2 decades but showed a temporary reversal from 2018 to 2021. Persistent disparities and rising alcohol-related mortality highlight the need for targeted prevention and equitable care strategies.